Tadas Povilauskas, economist with the bank, admitted that the latest forecast could be seen as „too pessimistic“.
According to the SEB bank, average salary growth is expected at 9.2% (up from the previous 8.5% forecast in January) in 2024. The upgrade is due to private sector employers’ decisions on wage changes this year, Povilauskas explained in the press conference.
Unemployment is forecast to increase to 7% from 6.8% before falling to 6.6% in 2025.
SEB lowered its forecast for average annual inflation from 2% to 1%, with no deflation projected for this year. According to the economist, the biggest threat to this year’s inflation forecast is a possible spike in energy prices due to geopolitical tensions and their impact on oil and natural gas supply.
The bank kept its 2025 average annual inflation forecast of 2.7% unchanged.